Happy New Year

Sometimes I have a grand vision of this blog but I just can't be motivated to do the research and write it. Research requires time, and with a young family and a change in jobs, time is something of a premium. I wanted to look at Alberta's labour market from the past decade but unfortunately I did not get around to the research to fully back up my claims. So instead, I'm going to provide a quick overview of the past decade, breaking the last decade into 3 periods. It is not going to be as complete as I initially envisioned, but at least it is something.

At the end 90's, thing were looking good in Alberta. Oil prices were rising and there were some major construction projects underway. This continued as we entered the new millennium. The new millennium brought a lot of global turmoil though. There was 9/11, the tech bubble burst and the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan. But thanks to the major construction projects, low interest rates and the high price for natural resources, Alberta weathered this. I think because we weathered this period of international unrest, Albertans got a little cocky. People were still moving into Alberta in droves, incomes were going up and everyone was predicting labour shortages.

In 2002 I was working as an employment consultant for a non-profit in Red Deer. The newspaper was still one of the better ways to look for work at the time and so I looked at the newspaper daily. Escort agencies were advertising in the classified ads. I was already saying then that there was going to be a labour shortage. My dad was working construction in both Red Deer and Fort McMurray and they had to fly in trades people from across Canada in order to meet the demand of these mega-projects.

As we moved further into the first decade of this millennium, the labour shortage became more acute as commodity prices rose and all sectors across Canada were firing on all cylinders. Enter 'the boom'. For me, a key feature of the boom was how easy it was for semi-skilled workers (with high school education or less) to find high paying jobs over $20/hour. The semi-skilled flocked to Alberta to make their fortune while the skilled workers stayed in their home provinces because they were already making comparable wages where they lived.

Even during the boom there were 'winners' and 'losers'. Some people did very well for themselves in Alberta. Others did not. People with disabilities struggled particularly hard as the red hot economy did not have the time to give people who need a little extra help an extra hand. As the Canadian born semi-skilled moved into higher paying jobs, the jobs that traditionally relied on these workers struggled. Tim Horton's were printing job ads right on their cups. So with a shortage of workers in the service industry, we saw the entry of temporary foreign workers.

No one in Alberta saw the the crash coming in October 2008. The housing bubble had already burst a year earlier in the United States and manufacturing in Ontario was also reeling. Albertans thought it would probably be sheltered from it like it was sheltered from the turmoil at the early part of this decade. But Alberta could not escape the effects of plummeting energy prices. A very wide swath of Albertans were laid off. From skilled engineers working in the office towers of Calgary to heavy equipment operators working the pits in Fort McMurray, pink slips were being handed out to a record number of Albertans and the Employment Insurance(EI) rolls skyrocketed. People who had never been on EI before found themselves asking for government assistance. I've said this before, but I think the 'the crash' was more of a correction. Alberta could not sustain a boom that relied on a bubble in commodity prices.

The 'recovery' we are seeing is thanks to low interest rates. Homes are being bought because interest rates are low. People are buying cars because they can get a great deal. We're seeing some increase in construction because they can get the financing and the labour is available. The Bank of Canada is going to continue these low interest rates until they feel that inflation is increasing. I know some people are hoping we'll be returning to a boom in the next couple of years, but this unrealistic. I think we'll see some growth, but it will be much slower and it will rely much more on skilled labour. Government needs to invest in retraining, particularly in the trades. The baby boomers are still going to retire. I think skilled workers are going to see an endemic labour shortage as a large portion of those in our labour market leave it and create a skills gap.

I had originally envisioned this post to be better researched with labour stats and quotes from the experts. Instead you got my opinion on what happened this past decade. I plan on continuing this blog about Alberta's labour market. This is a fun topic and I do enjoy discussing it. Thanks to everyone who has taken the time to read my blog !