I was hoping that the rate would start going down before now. This rate would indicate that the economy is not really getting worse, but it's not getting any better. I really think we've hit a plateau and this is where we are going to be for a while - maybe even a few years.
The bulk of Alberta's natural resource activity is actually in natural gas. And the price for natural gas is depressed right now. I anticipate that the oil sands are going to see some construction for the next few years, but it won't be at a frantic pace like it was 2 years ago. This will allow for some job creation (in construction) but it will be slower than before. With prices still low in natural gas we won't see as much activity in the gas sector for a while.
The economists are calling our labour market 'balanced'. I agree with this. It's harder for people to find work but it's still possible for those who have the skills and keep their expectations realistic. A high school drop out is going to have trouble making over $15/hour. Someone with just high school really needs to be flexible and should really look at further training. And individuals who are looking for training should look at keep their education general, as specialization may paint one into a corner if a particular company no longer needs that set of skills. Specialization is often inevitable, but if one has to specialize, specialize in more than one thing.
Alberta is still a great place. We'll have some challenges ahead of us, but I think these challenges are no worse than what we saw in the early 90's. For me, I just think it's important not to get too arrogant and keep things in perspective. We're always going to need oil and gas, but we need to keep it sustainable. This is an opportunity for Alberta to slow down and take stock make some appropriate investments. Then these investments will pay off in a few years when the economy starts to pick up again.
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