establishing the new status quo

The latest unemployment stats came out on Friday. These stats track the unemployment rate in through this country. Canada saw an increase of .2% to 8.6%. Alberta saw a change from 7.1% to 7.5%. CBC was saying that this increase was unexpected given the previous two months saw decreases in the unemployment rate.

There is a lot of debate as to whether or not we are on the road to recovery or the worst is yet to come. Personally, I think we're seeing the establishment of the new status quo. It's still a little too early to see it graphically, but I think we're seeing an evening out of the unemployment rate in both Alberta and Canada. We're not going to see much more in the way of increases, but I don't think we'll see any dramatic decreases either. Alberta seems to be staying around 7.0% while Canada is going to remain around 8.5%. As with any monthly statistics, there well be ebbs and flows (as we did this month), but I think for the next while, we'll see things remain around this level.

So what does this look like? This is going to be particularly hard for Albertans to adjust to I think. We got so used to (in such a short time I might add) to jobs being a dime a dozen, that now that the job market is much tighter, Albertans don't know what to do when they have trouble finding work. Employment and unemployment is going to cyclical for many people, particularly for those with lower levels of education. Alberta has always had a high drop out rate. Kids did the bare minimum in school and then quit because they could make $18 an hour (or higher) on the rigs and other such occupations. With rig jobs much more competitive, those that did drop out (or did graduate but didn't go on to any other post-secondary) are going to find the jobs now available pay much less than what they expect them to.

This is also going to affect professionals though, be it engineers or trades people, especially those tied to natural resources and construction. Professionals are going to have to adjust and prepare for the cyclical nature of their work. This may mean buying a cheaper vehicle or downsizing their homes to make sure they can make their bills during a layoff period. They will have to stop buying so much on credit.

I have several other concerns. TFW's were brought in during the boom to fill labour shortages, typically in the food and hospitality sectors where Canadians would not work in favour of higher paying jobs. Employers have become addicted to these workers as they do a better job and take the position much more seriously than a born Canadian ever did. But the problem is that there are a lot of Canadians unemployed and we need to make sure that they get jobs first, even if it is for $9/hr.

We need to make sure our education policy is balanced and we educate an equal portion of tradespeople, technical personnel and University graduates. Boom times may not return soon but we still need to make sure we have a balanced labour market.

People are still going to have jobs. It's just that jobs will be harder to find. Government services will need to realign to help Albertans find these jobs and make sure Albertans are prepared for the job search. We also have to remember that we have an aging population, and some people will retire, but some won't. We are going to need replacements for these workers, particularly in the professional fields. So we need a robust and responsive immigration system. One that focuses on bringing new people with the skills we need.

I still see a lot of people expecting us to climb out of this 'recession' and return in a year or two to glory days of the boom. This is unrealistic. Instead, we need to adapt and expect that higher unemployment rates are not an aberration. It is certainly something to work on lowering, but it is unrealistic to expect that we'll return to unemployment rates like 3.5%. Besides, even those who were making big money during the boom had to admit - the boom was unsustainable. Now is the time to correct the problems we saw manifest themselves and prepare our structures to become more responsive to the ebbs and flows of the labour market.