mmm labour stats

The latest labour force statistics (better known as the unemployment rate) for May came out yesterday. Check them here. Both Canada and Alberta saw very small increase in the unemployment rate in May, which is really no surprise. The stats for May confirm what I've been thinking about for 3 months now. The Alberta economy has finished its correction and the new status quo is taking hold.

Gone are the days where a kid can drop out of school and land a $25 job playing in the mud. Gone are the days that if your employer wasn't paying you enough you just went next door for an extra 2 bucks an hour. Gone are the days of quitting your job on Friday and having a new one Monday morning.

The new reality is that we need workers with skills and education. If you're not pulling your weight at the job, you may find yourself looking for a new one. Employers are not looking for workers who just have a pulse, they're looking for workers who will do the best they can for the business.

The downturn did hurt a lot of people. But it could have been a lot worse. People still have jobs and Alberta still has the largest labour participation rate in Canada. People are still buying Wal-mart, going out for dinner at The Keg and having fun at Rundle Park. Some people say the worst is still to come. Myself, I think what we just saw was a correction. We couldn't sustain the boom we saw from 2004 to 2008. But the world still needs fossil fuels. And Alberta still has them.

What puts Alberta in a tough position is that we're still getting a lot of inter-provincial migrants who think that just anyone can come and secure a good paying job here. But the thing is that there is a lot less demand for lower skilled positions now. If you want a job as a heavy equipment operator you need to get in line with 30 other guys applying for the same position. Don't have any experience working on the rigs? Well, there are lots of guys applying for those jobs who DO have the experience. There are still plenty of jobs in the service sector though, but they are expecting that you'll stick around for more than 2 weeks. If they don't think you will, don't expect a call back.

I foresee that Alberta could stay at this plateau for a number of years. If oil prices remain around $60 bucks a barrel, the companies will still be working, but working less. This isn't a bad thing. The break neck pace of the last 4 years was ridiculous. Instead, let the economy develop in a sustainable fashion. Instead of 4 2-3000 person construction projects happening at one time, lets have one. Once that project is done, move onto the next one. This allows Alberta to fulfill its labour obligations and still develop its economy. It also keeps the kids that should be in school, in school. It ensures that drunk people aren't driving 5 story heavy haulers. And it keeps the line up at Tim Hortons manageable.