another reboot

While discussing the latest labour market statistics might be interesting for some, I realize (now) that for most people it is quite boring. While I very much believe that these things do influence our lives, it is time to move onto a more interesting and dynamic topic - Alberta's culture.

This topic is not without it's detractors I'm sure. How the heck can I discuss Alberta's culture when the whole nation is mired in a debate about whether we can even define Canadian culture? Well, first of all, I am a strong believer that Canada does possess a strong and vibrant culture unique to itself. You see, I believe culture is more than the TV shows a country watches, the celebrities it idolizes and the opera it produces. I believe culture is a collective road map that a group of individuals follow, whether at the micro or macro level. Culture is the means we get to work, what we talk about when we get there and what we do after work. It is individual choices and the array of choices that present themselves to an individual. Culture is no less than the collective expression of a group of people. So a lot of Alberta's culture will have similarities to the rest of Canada and English speaking North America. But some things are unique, and that is what I want to talk about.

There are plenty of stereotypes that exist about Alberta. Images of redneck, highrolling, conservative , arrogant cowboys spring to my mind. But this stereotype does not do the 3.5 million citizens justice. Alberta has a strong multi-cultural community. It is a province with several dynamic and growing cities that is still proud of its rural heritage. From the stage in Rosebud to Manulife Place in Edmonton to the cathedral in Grouard, Alberta's culture is informed by it's history and shaped by each individual who inhabits this province. It cannot be pinned down to an exact definition, but it can discussed. And that is what I hope to do with this blog.

a decrease in unemployment! happy days again?

December's unemployment stats are for Alberta are here . Last month the rate was 7.4% and this month we saw a decrease to (drumroll please) 6.7%. Nationally, the job picture was flat, with half the provinces showing an increase in unemployment and the other half showing a decrease.

I think these stats are showing the establishment of the status quo. We need a few more months to really see it, but I think this 'recovery' that everyone is talking about is just leveling off from the correction we saw last year. The bubble of the boom couldn't sustain itself, it popped and now we're seeing more realistic growth.

Another piece of evidence is in the tax assessments. Last year, my basement condo on the Avenue of Nations in Edmonton was assessed at 190,000+. This year, my assessment is now 30,000 less. Now, I'm fixing up my unit to make it more palatable, but the new assessment is definitely more realistic than last year. I am of course hoping to sell for more, but right now, I might just need to wait and see if demand starts to pick up.

We really need a few more months to really see where our economy is going, but I think the evidence is continuing to point to a new status quo (as I've mentioned several times).

Cloudy, with a chance of labour shortages

There are two types of labour shortages. One is for skilled workers, people who require education and training to do their jobs, and the other is for semi-skilled workers - jobs that require little training. Alberta has seen both, but as the economy collapsed with falling energy prices, Alberta suddenly found itself with more workers than it had positions.

The collapse did affect all sectors. Even health care, once touted as the one sector to never decline again is not hiring as the government tries to reign in spending. But the people I see who are most affected by this downturn are individuals with little education. The job market is certainly more competitive than it once was, but the right people with the right experience are still finding the right job.

Demographics point to the inevitable. The baby boomers are retiring. Certainly, some will stay in the workforce for many more years, but many will leave their careers of 25-30 years and move into something that is more suitable for someone in their 60's. An accountant who has had one too many tax seasons opens a small hobby shop specializing in toy trains. A pipefitter recovers from cancer surgery and can't pull wrenches anymore, so helps his local church on an almost daily basis. A senior manager (government or corporate) is tired of the bloody cold so starts wintering in warmer climes. This is just starting to happen.

There will always be those who do not want to continue on their education so they will take the semi-skilled jobs. I believe the boom gave some of these individuals unrealistic expectations. The truth is, that the jobs in our economy require some level of training. Our economy is not run on people who can dig holes or serve you at a cash register. We need people who can plan the holes and make sure the money from the cash register all adds up. We need people to lay pipe, stick it together, put it in the air and make sure it is done safely and with minimal harm to our environment. That doesn't mean you need a university degree. But it does mean you need to invest some of your time and money into training.

There is no magic sector that is hiring people right now and there is no quick course you can take so you can get into that magic sector. As the economy slowly recovers all sectors will need people. I believe the key is to find something you want to do, get the training and start getting the experience. This will put you into a good position once the next, more endemic labour shortage comes around.

Happy New Year

Sometimes I have a grand vision of this blog but I just can't be motivated to do the research and write it. Research requires time, and with a young family and a change in jobs, time is something of a premium. I wanted to look at Alberta's labour market from the past decade but unfortunately I did not get around to the research to fully back up my claims. So instead, I'm going to provide a quick overview of the past decade, breaking the last decade into 3 periods. It is not going to be as complete as I initially envisioned, but at least it is something.

At the end 90's, thing were looking good in Alberta. Oil prices were rising and there were some major construction projects underway. This continued as we entered the new millennium. The new millennium brought a lot of global turmoil though. There was 9/11, the tech bubble burst and the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan. But thanks to the major construction projects, low interest rates and the high price for natural resources, Alberta weathered this. I think because we weathered this period of international unrest, Albertans got a little cocky. People were still moving into Alberta in droves, incomes were going up and everyone was predicting labour shortages.

In 2002 I was working as an employment consultant for a non-profit in Red Deer. The newspaper was still one of the better ways to look for work at the time and so I looked at the newspaper daily. Escort agencies were advertising in the classified ads. I was already saying then that there was going to be a labour shortage. My dad was working construction in both Red Deer and Fort McMurray and they had to fly in trades people from across Canada in order to meet the demand of these mega-projects.

As we moved further into the first decade of this millennium, the labour shortage became more acute as commodity prices rose and all sectors across Canada were firing on all cylinders. Enter 'the boom'. For me, a key feature of the boom was how easy it was for semi-skilled workers (with high school education or less) to find high paying jobs over $20/hour. The semi-skilled flocked to Alberta to make their fortune while the skilled workers stayed in their home provinces because they were already making comparable wages where they lived.

Even during the boom there were 'winners' and 'losers'. Some people did very well for themselves in Alberta. Others did not. People with disabilities struggled particularly hard as the red hot economy did not have the time to give people who need a little extra help an extra hand. As the Canadian born semi-skilled moved into higher paying jobs, the jobs that traditionally relied on these workers struggled. Tim Horton's were printing job ads right on their cups. So with a shortage of workers in the service industry, we saw the entry of temporary foreign workers.

No one in Alberta saw the the crash coming in October 2008. The housing bubble had already burst a year earlier in the United States and manufacturing in Ontario was also reeling. Albertans thought it would probably be sheltered from it like it was sheltered from the turmoil at the early part of this decade. But Alberta could not escape the effects of plummeting energy prices. A very wide swath of Albertans were laid off. From skilled engineers working in the office towers of Calgary to heavy equipment operators working the pits in Fort McMurray, pink slips were being handed out to a record number of Albertans and the Employment Insurance(EI) rolls skyrocketed. People who had never been on EI before found themselves asking for government assistance. I've said this before, but I think the 'the crash' was more of a correction. Alberta could not sustain a boom that relied on a bubble in commodity prices.

The 'recovery' we are seeing is thanks to low interest rates. Homes are being bought because interest rates are low. People are buying cars because they can get a great deal. We're seeing some increase in construction because they can get the financing and the labour is available. The Bank of Canada is going to continue these low interest rates until they feel that inflation is increasing. I know some people are hoping we'll be returning to a boom in the next couple of years, but this unrealistic. I think we'll see some growth, but it will be much slower and it will rely much more on skilled labour. Government needs to invest in retraining, particularly in the trades. The baby boomers are still going to retire. I think skilled workers are going to see an endemic labour shortage as a large portion of those in our labour market leave it and create a skills gap.

I had originally envisioned this post to be better researched with labour stats and quotes from the experts. Instead you got my opinion on what happened this past decade. I plan on continuing this blog about Alberta's labour market. This is a fun topic and I do enjoy discussing it. Thanks to everyone who has taken the time to read my blog !

November surprise?

November's labour stats are out. A slight decrease in the rate pretty much across the board. There were 13,000 jobs added this month in Alberta and 79,000 added nationally, mostly in the service sector.

Apparently some economists expressed surprise at this increase. Personally, I just think it's compensating for last month's drop. As I said last month, I expect that these increases and decreases will be our reality for quite some time. So the numbers didn't surprise me. As long as natural gas prices remain low and oil is (relatively) stable, then this is Alberta's reality.

So I really don't have much more to say for now about employment stats. Can you believe that the first decade of this millennium is almost over? 10 years went fast. So I want to take a few posts and look at Alberta's labour market over the past decade. By looking over the past we may be able to pick out some trends for the future. My primary source is going to be Stats Canada, but if my readers (oh so many of you!) can suggest other sources for me to use, I'll certainly be willing to take a look. As we near the Christmas season and the end of the year, I want to thank everyone in advance for reading my blog and I hope to continue this for some time.

Is the sky falling?

Fossil fuels are a non-renewable resource. Does this surprise anyone? The contentious thing is how much is still left for us to use and how much of an impact the use of fossil fuels has on our environment. Some, usually on the side of the established government and large corporations, want us to believe that there are still lots of reserves and we will not have to change our lifestyle significantly to adapt. Others, believe that depletion of fossil fuels is imminent and we will need to make significant changes in our lifestyle as the developing world develops and sucks up what little is left in fossil fuels.

As an energy province, this is a debate that Alberta pays attention to. Certainly, Alberta has used up many of it's conventional oil reserves but is still sitting on a very large reserves in the oil sands. But will the demand for oil and it's byproducts continue?

Looking around my living room I can think of very little that doesn't owe at least something to the existence of fossil fuels. My son's tricycle - plastic. We have lot's of wood products in our living room, but they got here because the boat/train/truck guzzled a lot of gas to get it to Ikea, Staples or Zellers. Maybe the saw that cut my Ikea sofa used hydro power, but most electricity is generated using some form of fossil fuels like coal or natural gas.

I think the key thing is that we decrease our reliance on fossil fuels. I don't think we'll be able to completely wean ourselves off of them in at least my lifetime, but it's important to develop the technology for new forms of energy. We need to recognize that fossil fuels are here to stay - for now - but still recognize that they are a finite resource.

So we need to continue to develop technologies that reduce the harmful effects fossil fuels have on our environment while developing other technologies to rid ourself of our dependence. The problem for some is that this seems like a conflict of interest. The oil tycoons want to continue making millions and the alternative energy people think that the continued use of fossil fuels decreases the demand for their technology. We can't let it be. The tycoons need to realize that there is still plenty of wealth to share and the alternative energy people need to work with those who have the capital.

Canada has the potential of still being a major supplier while being a leader in developing green technologies. So instead of predicting the end of the world with the collapse of oil supplies, I really think we can marshal those resources and develop a better, more sustainable economy.

establishing the new status quo

The latest unemployment stats came out on Friday. These stats track the unemployment rate in through this country. Canada saw an increase of .2% to 8.6%. Alberta saw a change from 7.1% to 7.5%. CBC was saying that this increase was unexpected given the previous two months saw decreases in the unemployment rate.

There is a lot of debate as to whether or not we are on the road to recovery or the worst is yet to come. Personally, I think we're seeing the establishment of the new status quo. It's still a little too early to see it graphically, but I think we're seeing an evening out of the unemployment rate in both Alberta and Canada. We're not going to see much more in the way of increases, but I don't think we'll see any dramatic decreases either. Alberta seems to be staying around 7.0% while Canada is going to remain around 8.5%. As with any monthly statistics, there well be ebbs and flows (as we did this month), but I think for the next while, we'll see things remain around this level.

So what does this look like? This is going to be particularly hard for Albertans to adjust to I think. We got so used to (in such a short time I might add) to jobs being a dime a dozen, that now that the job market is much tighter, Albertans don't know what to do when they have trouble finding work. Employment and unemployment is going to cyclical for many people, particularly for those with lower levels of education. Alberta has always had a high drop out rate. Kids did the bare minimum in school and then quit because they could make $18 an hour (or higher) on the rigs and other such occupations. With rig jobs much more competitive, those that did drop out (or did graduate but didn't go on to any other post-secondary) are going to find the jobs now available pay much less than what they expect them to.

This is also going to affect professionals though, be it engineers or trades people, especially those tied to natural resources and construction. Professionals are going to have to adjust and prepare for the cyclical nature of their work. This may mean buying a cheaper vehicle or downsizing their homes to make sure they can make their bills during a layoff period. They will have to stop buying so much on credit.

I have several other concerns. TFW's were brought in during the boom to fill labour shortages, typically in the food and hospitality sectors where Canadians would not work in favour of higher paying jobs. Employers have become addicted to these workers as they do a better job and take the position much more seriously than a born Canadian ever did. But the problem is that there are a lot of Canadians unemployed and we need to make sure that they get jobs first, even if it is for $9/hr.

We need to make sure our education policy is balanced and we educate an equal portion of tradespeople, technical personnel and University graduates. Boom times may not return soon but we still need to make sure we have a balanced labour market.

People are still going to have jobs. It's just that jobs will be harder to find. Government services will need to realign to help Albertans find these jobs and make sure Albertans are prepared for the job search. We also have to remember that we have an aging population, and some people will retire, but some won't. We are going to need replacements for these workers, particularly in the professional fields. So we need a robust and responsive immigration system. One that focuses on bringing new people with the skills we need.

I still see a lot of people expecting us to climb out of this 'recession' and return in a year or two to glory days of the boom. This is unrealistic. Instead, we need to adapt and expect that higher unemployment rates are not an aberration. It is certainly something to work on lowering, but it is unrealistic to expect that we'll return to unemployment rates like 3.5%. Besides, even those who were making big money during the boom had to admit - the boom was unsustainable. Now is the time to correct the problems we saw manifest themselves and prepare our structures to become more responsive to the ebbs and flows of the labour market.